The Uncertainty of Climatic Change


There is huge SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY when it comes to predicting long and even short term change.

EXAMPLE:

The long term prospects for sea level change are hugely varied between scientists. Level changes approximations range form 20cm+ to 350cm+ in 100years.

Certain factors must be taken into consideration when looking at predictions for global environmental change.

  1. We must remember who is publishing the predictions and what their motives are.

Political groups orientate results for their own gain. Insurance companies use climatic change models to induce customers into taking out policies that may not be required. An example of this could be a company that encourages a firm based near the coast to take out insurance against sea level rise, when any changes in water heights may not affect the firm at all. Groups will use the worst possible predicted scenario to base their policies on.

We must be aware of the authors of predictions who have their own agendas to follow and are employed but particular agencies to use worst possible scenarios often avoiding the truth.

The Global Climate Coaliton

The G.C.C. are a fuel and oil producing business. They argue for the reduction in restrictions on greenhouse gases, often with much success. They use the argument that climate change is so uncertain that doing nothing at all is probably better for the future than imposing rules and regulations that may have unknown affects.

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